Abstract
The rainfall variability and its effect on fruit crop yield was studied using rainfall data (1971-99) and yield data of Apricot and Plum (1980-99) recorded at research farm of Dr. Y.S. Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni, Solan. Length and amount of rainfall of south-west monsoon (SWM) season exhibited decreasing trend during the third decade (1991-99) when compared with the previous decade 1981-90 and 1971-80. The mean rainfall and rainy days for the two decade and the recent period decreased and the co-efficient of variation also lower indicating more stability in rainfall as well as in numbers of rainy day. Variation in rainfall apparent to be the major factor contributing to fall in the crop yields. Analysis of daily rainfall data suggested that wet spells with total amount of rainfall up to 100 mm were more frequent in the region. To see the weekly pattern rainfall the initial and conditional probability was also obtained and the wet probability found highest from 25th to 35th meteorological week.
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