Research Article | Published: 01 June 2001

Forecasting of teak prices in Kerala state, India, using autoregressive integrated moving average models

C. N. Krishnankutty

Indian Journal of Forestry | Volume: 24 | Issue: 2 | Page No. 119-122 | 2001
DOI: https://doi.org/10.54207/bsmps1000-2001-U32PG1 | Cite this article

Abstract

Based on time series of average annual current prices of teak (Tectona grandis Linn.f.) in girth-classes 1 (logs having mid-girth, under bark, 150 to 184 cm), 2 (100 to 149 cm) and 3 (75 to 99 cm) in Kerala State, India, future prices were predicted with 95% confidence limits for the years up to 2015-16 using autoregressive integrated moving average models. The price forecasts for teak in girth-classes 1, 2 and 3 per m3 for the year 2015-16 at current prices are Rs. 90,000, Rs. 71,000 and Rs. 67,000 respectively.

Keywords

Access Options

250/-

Buy Full Access in HTML Format

Instant access to the full article.

Get access to the full version of this article. Buy Full Access in HTML Format

References

1. Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M. (1976). Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control. (second edition). San Francisco: Holden-Day.

Google Scholar

2. Cheng, C.C. and Jen, J.A. (1980). Studies on the fluctuations and prediction of timber prices in Taiwan. Taiwan Forestry Research Institute, Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China. Bulletin 338.

3. Krishnankutty, C.N. (1989). Long-term price trend of timber in Kerala. Indian Jour. For., 12(1): 7-12.

Google Scholar

4. Krishnankutty, C.N. (1998). Timber price trends in Kerala. KFRI Research Report No. 160, Kerala Forest Research Institute, Peechi, India.

Google Scholar

5. Mathur, R.S.; Sagar, S.R. and Mahendra, A.K. (1984). Price trends of fire-wood in Haryana. Indian For., 110(10): 973-981.

Google Scholar

6. Misra, N.M.; Mahendra, A.K. and Ansari, M.Y. (1987). Price trends of teak (round logs) in Orissa. Indian For., 113(5): 345-351.

Google Scholar

7. Oliviera, R.A.; Boungiorno, J. and Kmiotek, A.M. (1977). Time series forecasting models of timber cash futures and basis prices. For. Sci., 23(2): 268-280.

Google Scholar

8. Rai, S.N. (1987). Steep rise in timber prices. Myforest, 23(1): 111-115.

Google Scholar

9. Sagar, S.R. and Mahendra, A.K. (1986). Price trends of sal timber in Orissa. Indian For., 112(12): 1080-1087.

Google Scholar

10. SPSS Inc. (1987). SPSS PC + ‘Trends’. 444 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago.

11. Suri, S.K. (1973). Comprehensive price trends of five commercially important timber species logs - Narainpur Depot (Madhya Pradesh). Indian For., 99(8): 510-515.

Google Scholar

12. Suri, S.K. (1974). Price trend studies on teak logs - Taku Depot (Madhya Pradesh). Indian For., 100(4): 235-245.

Google Scholar

About this article

How to cite

Krishnankutty, C.N., 2001. Forecasting of teak prices in Kerala state, India, using autoregressive integrated moving average models. Indian Journal of Forestry, 24(2), pp.119-122. https://doi.org/10.54207/bsmps1000-2001-U32PG1

Publication History

Manuscript Published on 01 June 2001

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: